Mayfield is signed through 2029. Tampa Bay's next test is offensive balance.

Cover photograph: Unsplash. Illustrative American football imagery; not a photograph of Mayfield or a Buccaneers game.

The Buccaneers confirmed on 8 September that Baker Mayfield's new agreement keeps him under contract through 2029. The club announcement describes a three-year extension within a new four-year agreement. NFL Network's report puts the extension's value at $165 million; that reported figure should not be read as a statement that the entire sum is guaranteed.

The contract answers who Tampa Bay intends to build around. Our football question is how often the offence can give Mayfield a useful choice before a passing down becomes obvious.

The running-game benchmark already exists

In its Week One statistical preview, Tampa Bay records 149.7 rushing yards per game and 5.25 yards per carry in 2024. Both figures declined the following season, with injuries affecting the offensive line and Bucky Irving. New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson inherits the task of restoring that production.

Our assessment is that the useful benefit would be more credible options from the same formation. When a defence has to account for an effective run, the quarterback can exploit the space created by its response. That depends on blocking, timing and the quality of the read; simply calling more runs would not establish it.

What to watch in Cincinnati

The Bucs open at Cincinnati on Sunday. We would judge the attack by how often it stays in manageable down-and-distance situations, and whether the passing game can punish defenders who commit to the run.

The counterargument is that Mayfield can lead an effective pass-heavy offence. The aim should therefore be productive choices, rather than an arbitrary run-pass split. A successful opening game would show that Tampa Bay can protect those choices when the first plan fails. The extension supplies continuity; the weekly evidence must come from the possessions.

Related reading: our Patriots–Seahawks preview examines how protection and receiving routes give a quarterback a second answer.