South Africa vs Australia 1st ODI: depleted pace attacks put the toss in focus

Preview — Thursday 24 September 2026: South Africa host Australia in the first ODI at Kingsmead, Durban, at 10:00 SAST/CAT (18:00 AEST). The official teams had not been confirmed at our 09:42 CAT check, so squad availability is verified below but no predicted XI is labelled as final.

The central question is whether South Africa can turn a damp, potentially tacky Kingsmead surface into an equaliser when their usual pace depth is missing. Australia also arrive below full strength, but Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood give Mitch Marsh a more established new-ball pairing than the hosts can currently name.

South Africa's absences change the value of the toss

Cricket Australia reports that Kagiso Rabada, Lungi Ngidi, Ottneil Baartman, Nandré Burger and Kwena Maphaka are unavailable through injury, while Aiden Markram will miss the opener for personal reasons. Those are not small changes around the edges. They remove both new-ball control and experienced death-over options from a side whose home identity is normally built around fast bowling.

If the surface retains moisture after rain in Durban, Temba Bavuma must decide whether the best use of the conditions is immediate attack or protection for an inexperienced seam group. Bowling first could offer movement before the pitch settles. Batting first could avoid asking a depleted attack to defend a target without knowing how quickly the surface will improve.

The counterargument is that unfamiliar bowlers can be difficult to prepare for, particularly if Duan Jansen or Nqobani Mokoena find a length that forces Australia to hit square rather than straight. South Africa do not need to imitate Rabada and Ngidi. They need their replacements to make the first ten overs costly enough in risk that the middle overs begin on level terms.

Australia's attack is stronger than its captaincy label suggests

Pat Cummins will not play the first ODI, and Marsh is set to captain. Cameron Green has been managing a shoulder issue and may be used as a batter if selected; Jack Edwards is a possible debutant, not a confirmed one. Those uncertainties matter, but Starc and Hazlewood still give Australia a clear opening plan: challenge the stumps early, then make South Africa's middle order rebuild against a changing field.

Australia's own risk is treating pace depth as permission to attack every ball. Kingsmead's early start and weather can reward patience as much as aggression. Travis Head and Marsh can change the rate quickly, but losing both during the most difficult batting window would expose a middle order that is still sorting roles ahead of the 2027 World Cup.

Where South Africa can move the match

Quinton de Kock, Bavuma, David Miller and Tristan Stubbs give the hosts enough batting experience to resist the idea that this is decided by the injury list. Their best route is to separate Starc and Hazlewood from the rest of the innings: survive the most threatening spells without becoming static, then force Australia's secondary bowlers to defend both sides of the wicket.

Keshav Maharaj can become especially important if South Africa set a total. The morning start does not guarantee a pace-only game. If the surface slows, controlling the middle overs could prevent Head, Marsh or Josh Inglis from turning a manageable chase into a short one. South Africa's weakened seam attack makes that control more valuable, not less.

Prediction: Australia have the narrower, clearer plan

Australia enter with the stronger available pace core and a recent 3–0 ODI sweep in Zimbabwe. South Africa have home conditions and substantial batting quality, but replacing so many fast bowlers at once raises the cost of every missed length.

Prediction: Australia to win a close first ODI, with medium-low confidence. That call changes if the toss exposes Australia to a prolonged difficult batting period or if South Africa's replacement seamers control the new ball. The safer conclusion is tactical rather than absolute: the side that loses fewer wickets in the first ten overs should be able to dictate the middle of the match.

For the longer selection picture, read our earlier analysis of Australia's South Africa Test squad and its balance questions.

Illustrative cricket photograph by Zoshua Colah / Unsplash, used under the Unsplash Licence. It does not depict South Africa, Australia, Kingsmead or this ODI.